Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.018995 0.021546 0.024319 0.027559 0.031243 0.035303 0.040120
2025-05-11 0.014691 0.018120 0.022175 0.027332 0.033723 0.041398 0.051334
2025-05-18 0.012416 0.016207 0.020956 0.027351 0.035760 0.046469 0.061191
2025-05-25 0.010655 0.014566 0.019697 0.026941 0.036938 0.050299 0.069597
2025-06-01 0.009589 0.013645 0.019186 0.027336 0.039067 0.055421 0.080090
2025-06-08 0.008557 0.012617 0.018367 0.027137 0.040247 0.059225 0.088985
2025-06-15 0.007977 0.012153 0.018266 0.027911 0.042836 0.065208 0.101578
2025-06-22 0.007052 0.011066 0.017121 0.026970 0.042700 0.067039 0.107925
2025-06-29 0.006401 0.010327 0.016418 0.026614 0.043389 0.070133 0.116471
2025-07-06 0.005719 0.009469 0.015439 0.025704 0.043068 0.071534 0.122307
2025-07-13 0.005490 0.009321 0.015580 0.026626 0.045827 0.078180 0.137555
2025-07-20 0.005234 0.009102 0.015576 0.027290 0.048184 0.084322 0.152472
2025-07-27 0.005009 0.008923 0.015636 0.028090 0.050894 0.091389 0.169890
2025-08-03 0.004633 0.008444 0.015135 0.027850 0.051720 0.095190 0.181712
2025-08-10 0.004336 0.008079 0.014800 0.027870 0.053006 0.099914 0.195695
2025-08-17 0.004006 0.007625 0.014260 0.027453 0.053414 0.103004 0.206770
2025-08-24 0.003817 0.007416 0.014158 0.027855 0.055429 0.109330 0.224877
2025-08-31 0.003569 0.007072 0.013766 0.027653 0.056219 0.113302 0.238534
2025-09-07 0.003458 0.006988 0.013869 0.028441 0.059076 0.121654 0.262162
2025-09-14 0.003163 0.006507 0.013148 0.027482 0.058222 0.122302 0.269291
2025-09-21 0.002956 0.006191 0.012732 0.027119 0.058587 0.125515 0.282326
2025-09-28 0.002711 0.005775 0.012078 0.026191 0.057646 0.125842 0.288887
2025-10-05 0.002661 0.005769 0.012279 0.027132 0.060894 0.135578 0.317976